Yuya Fujimoto

Thinking in probabilistic

December 05, 2020

Life is full of uncertainties. In this accelerated world, nothing is sure what’s going to happen even in the next year.

One effective way to make yourself resilient under the circumstance is to think in probabilistic. Instead of assuming things as black or white, think about the likelihood of each outcome.

We all live in our imaginary world. People see what they want to see. We tend to look for things that support our assumptions/opinions/arguments and ignore things that contradict them.

Thinking in probabilistic makes you continuously test your beliefs. It makes you realize what the underlying assumptions of it are. It makes you explore other possibilities. It makes you ask the right questions.

If you are an entrepreneur, it is beneficial when validating your business ideas. Every idea has several hypotheses underneath. Write down those hypotheses and ask yourself.

  • What needs to be true for the business to work?
  • Which is the most dangerous assumption that has the potential to destroy your currently imagined business?

Visualize those things makes you set your expected outcomes upfront. By doing so, you get to see things way more. Otherwise, you learn almost nothing. In other words, if you don’t, you will keep looking for something that fits your ideal world.

“If you simply plan on seeing what happens you will always succeed at seeing what happens because something is guaranteed to happen.” — Eric Ries, The Lean Startup

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